Mexico 2018-2024: a six-year term without crisis?

(My final assigment for the course "Decision Making in a Complex and Uncertain World" at the  University of Groningen )

Since the end of 2018, when the new government took office, there have been many voices that predict a financial crisis at any moment. Contrary to this, the government has improved tax collection, has started a crusade against corruption, has renegotiated and paid off the foreign debt, and has kept the price of the currency against the dollar at very stable levels. However, there are many factors that put the project at risk: the negotiation of a new trade agreement with the USA and the measures of its government (Trump), the immigration problem, the health crisis caused by Covid-19, the resistance of the entrepreneurs to improve working conditions and the insatiable appetite of banks and the media.

In this scenario, the political uncertainty of the elections in 2021 is added, the pressures of the economic powers against the reforms that have given them great profits and the evolution of the pandemic.

To shore up the fragility of the country, the government has invested a lot of money in reactivating the health system, it has not taken into debt, it has invested in social programs, it has made reforms to regain purchasing power, it is recovering the level of energy production, it has fact that the army is in charge of the construction of the great infrastructure projects. He did not even opt for a rescue that the companies asked for 2 months after the initial confinement in 2020.

It is curious that this government rejects the recipes of international financial organizations or businessmen of always, but this has prevented what at other times has generated strong crises.

At the moment, it is not clear if we will manage to reach 2024 without a crisis (which would already be historic), but if so, it could be the beginning of a reorganization of the Mexican economy and society.